America Doesn’t Need Gulf Oil. Does It Still Need Diesel – from Russia, of All Places?

14 October 2026 · Rolf Weidemann

A war windfall for the United States

In April, the United States exported more crude oil and petroleum products than ever before, 13.6 million barrels per day¹. That domestic prices rose all the same is no conspiracy. In an open export market, the world price pulls the domestic price up with it.

When a war like the one against Iran drives up world prices, a so-called “war windfall” arises in the United States. It is money that flows from consumers, farmers and truckers to refiners, exporters and shareholders. That the arms industry profits as well is part of every war². This is about something else: Trump and the price of diesel at home.

In the second quarter of 2026, Exxon doubled its profit to $14.5 billion, and Chevron nearly quadrupled its own³. The refining groups Marathon, Phillips 66 and Valero together earned $12.6 billion, up from $2.9 billion a year earlier. Of that, $6.3 billion went to shareholders⁴. In September, diesel in the United States reached a record price of $6.52 per gallon⁵.

Who allows this, and who offsets it?

Loud words, no consequences

Trump has not been silent. In August, he said of Chevron and Exxon: “They made too much money, too much money.” They should “give some of that back to the public”⁶. At the end of August, he accused refiners of gouging and invited them to the White House⁷. For the industry, it had no consequences.

He did act – elsewhere. He released oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve until it was almost as empty as in 1983⁸. A diesel export ban, which he himself had backed in September, he shelved after the industry pushed back⁹. In early October, he brought it back as a threat, this time against Europe. According to reports, Germany, France, Italy, Ireland and the United Kingdom were told to open their emergency reserves or lose access to American diesel¹⁰. Europe gave in. On 2 October, the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency stocks. Afterwards, Trump declared there would be no export ban¹¹.

A windfall tax of the kind Europe levied in 2022 is not on the agenda. Democratic bills have been on the table since March; by July, no committee had taken them up¹².

Trump acts everywhere – except where the money from the war windfall goes.

Diesel from Russia

Trump blames Kyiv, not the Iran war, for diesel prices¹³. At the end of September, the Kremlin named its condition: Russia would export diesel again once sanctions were lifted¹⁴. On 9 October, after a phone call with Putin, Trump announced the new deal: Russian diesel for the United States, with sanctions eased in return until April 2027⁵.

Yet Russia can hardly deliver. In the first eight months of the year, Ukrainian drones hit a Russian refinery every three days on average. Diesel output has fallen by almost 30%, and Russia itself is importing gasoline¹⁵. The first announced shipment of 300,000 tonnes covers barely two hours of global diesel consumption. Analysts expect “probably not much” for prices – but “a great benefit to Russia and to Putin”⁵.

Here, diesel is not the commodity but the collateral. Every future delivery presupposes that Russia’s refineries stop burning.

The deal also runs up against a law. Since April 2022, the Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act has banned imports of Russian energy into the United States. The president may lift the ban only after consulting Congress, and only if he certifies that Russia has agreed, with Ukraine’s consent, to withdraw its troops and end the fighting, poses no threat to any NATO member, and recognises the right of Ukrainians to choose their own government freely¹⁶. None of this has happened. The Treasury nonetheless considers the easing lawful, without saying what it is based on. Seven senators from both parties, four of them Republicans, consider the deal unlawful¹⁷.

The law demands peace before America buys Russian energy again. Trump reverses the order.

The bill goes to Kyiv – and to Europe

On 10 October, Trump said Zelensky had “better damn well stop” striking refineries. It was “time for Ukraine to get a new president,” he said – “a new leader who can make a deal”¹³. Two days later, he announced an “energy ceasefire”. Zelensky called it “news to me”¹⁸.

Yet strikes on refineries are Kyiv’s most effective weapon against Russia’s war chest. With them, Ukraine is fighting for its existence. Now they are becoming a bargaining chip, because ahead of the midterm elections on 3 November, diesel prices are becoming dangerous for Trump. Is Washington looking for a successor in Kyiv whom Moscow can live with? There is no proof of that. But the question is hard to avoid.

The 2022 law requires Russia to recognise the right of Ukrainians to choose their own government freely. Trump demands that Ukraine get a new president.

Europe pays too: with its emergency reserves, with its aid to Ukraine and with the credibility of its sanctions. At the same time, Trump’s envoy Jared Kushner and Putin’s confidant Kirill Dmitriev publicly discussed an American investor for Nord Stream – over Berlin’s head¹⁹.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stood by Zelensky and called for more pressure on Putin, not less²⁰.

What Europe must learn from this

Whether the diesel deal breaks American law is for Congress and the courts in Washington to decide. Europe’s question is a different one: why is it paying for a diesel price that has become a campaign issue in America?

The first lesson is not new. In 2022, Europe learned that dependence on Russian gas can become a weapon. Since then, it has relied more heavily on American diesel; the United Kingdom gets around 30% of its diesel from the United States¹⁰. This time, dependence turned into leverage within a few days. Europe needs more refining capacity of its own and more than one supplier.

The second: the EU embargo on Russian oil products has been in force since February 2023. Brussels should state clearly that it stays, whatever Washington eases.

The third: whether Ukraine strikes Russian refineries is for Kyiv to decide. Europe must not go along with an “energy ceasefire” agreed over Ukraine’s head. Wadephul’s backing for Zelensky should become a common European position.

The fourth: decisions on Nord Stream belong to Berlin and Brussels, not to an envoy from Washington and a confidant from Moscow.

Balance sheet: who pays, who wins, and who stands by laughing?

American consumers pay at the pump, taxpayers with a depleted oil reserve that they will have to refill. Europe pays with its emergency stocks and a weakened sanctions front. Ukraine pays with its military room for manoeuvre. Russia gets the chance to turn its fuel shortage into leverage against Ukraine. And China can watch the once united West fall out over diesel prices.

Only one group does not pay.

“The golden age of America begins right now,” Donald Trump promised at his inauguration in January 2025. For one industry, it began with the war against Iran.

For the American oil industry.